Scientific Symposium Presentation Abstracts
September 19
Dr. Judith Curry: The Potential for Hurricane Intensification in a Greenhouse-Enhanced World
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active and costly season on record. Recent publications linking an increase in hurricane intensity to increasing tropical sea surface temperatures have fueled a debate on whether or not global warming is causing an increase in hurricane intensity. Observations show the following:
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since 1970, the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has doubled globally; and
- in the North Atlantic, the number of named storms and hurricanes has increased 50% since the previous period of peak activity centered at about 1950.
This presentation will describe the evidence supporting the link between enhanced hurricane activity and greenhouse warming, clarify the debate surrounding the role of natural variability, and identify remaining uncertainties.
The prospect for further increases in hurricane activity with further climate warming is an issue of substantial societal interest and concern. An assessment will be provided of the capability of current climate models to simulate hurricane activity. Based upon current understanding from observations, theory and models, an overview will be provided of projections for global hurricane activity in a greenhouse enhanced world, with specific focus on the North Atlantic for the next two decades.
